Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Pat Freiermuth has gone over 6.5 FS in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 9.6 FS · our line

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OutPat Freiermuth isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

With time expiring in the second quarter, Freiermuth took a direct snap and punched in a one-yard rushing score to put the Steelers up 20-6 headed into halftime. The tight end entered the season with zero career carries but now has four through eight games, turning them into five yards and a touchdown. As a receiver, Freiermuth has been held to exactly two catches in each of the last three games and has yet to hit 50 yards in any game this season. He's a touchdown-or-bust fantasy bet with the Steelers headed into their bye week.

Verdict

vs 6.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

8.6 FS(×0.98 context)

L5 8.9 · L10 9.6 · med 7.4

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 4.2 · ceil 14.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	6/7
	71%	5/7
	57%	4/7
6.5Current	57%	4/7
	43%	3/7
	43%	3/7
	43%	3/7

Last 7 games — FS per game vs. line 6.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 6.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Last matchup — @ NO

Oct 25, 2026

8thof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends

NO allows 7.8 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 15 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 7 games, Pat Freiermuth has gone over 6.5 FS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NO has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 8th-most FS of 32 teams (7.8 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.