Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Pat Freiermuth has gone over 2.5 REC in 8 of his last 10 decided games (80%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.9 REC · our line

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OutPat Freiermuth isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Freiermuth was targeted only 54 times in 17 regular-season games in 2025, tying Jonnu Smith for the lead among Pittsburgh's tight ends while Darnell Washington drew 43 targets. Smith is no longer on the team, and while the Steelers made a high-profile addition at wide receiver by bringing in Michael Pittman, they also lost running back Kenneth Gainwell, who led the team with 73 catches last season. It's worth noting Aaron Rodgers typically hasn't relied heavily on tight ends, as no player at the position has recorded more than 767 receiving yards in a regular season on a team quarterbacked by Rodgers.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line69supports it

Consistency42neutral

Projection

2.9 REC(×1.10 context)

L5 2.8 · L10 2.8 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.6 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

80%over

8 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%

Last 2014 games

79%over

11 over · 3 under

Medium confidence95% CI 52%–92%

Season14 games

79%over

11 over · 3 under

Medium confidence95% CI 52%–92%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	14/14
	86%	12/14
2.5Current	79%	11/14
	14%	2/14
	7%	1/14
	0%	0/14

Last 14 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home83%5/6Low

Away75%6/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days77%10/13Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rico Dowdle out

Without (8g)

2.9 REC

75% over 2.5

With (6g)

2.8 REC

83% over 2.5

Last matchup — vs HOU

Jan 13, 2026

26thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends

HOU allows 2.3 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 38 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Pat Freiermuth has gone over 2.5 REC 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 79% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 26th-most REC of 32 teams (2.3 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 79%.