Pittsburgh Steelers

Pat Freiermuth Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Pat Freiermuth has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.3 REC TD · our line

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OutPat Freiermuth isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Freiermuth and Darnell Washington were both named starters for Sunday's game, with the former leading all Steelers tight ends with 46 of 67 offensive snaps (68.7 percent). Unlike Week 1 against the Falcons, Freiermuth did not draw a red zone target from Aaron Rodgers in Week 2, with the veteran quarterback averaging just 4.8 yards per pass attempt against New England. Freiermuth will take a 9-78-1 receiving line (on 10 targets) into a Week 3, AFC North divisional showdown against the Bengals.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 77% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line77supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 REC TD(×1.01 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2016 games

25%over

4 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 10%–49%

Season16 games

25%over

4 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 10%–49%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	25%	4/16
	6%	1/16
	0%	0/16
	0%	0/16

Last 16 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home29%2/7Low

Away22%2/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days27%4/15Medium

Next matchup — vs CIN

Sep 27, 2026

18thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

CIN allows 0.0 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Pat Freiermuth has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 25% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 18th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.