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Los Angeles RamsPuka Nacua
#12 · WR · 6' 2" · 216 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- BYU
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 115.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutPuka Nacua isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Nacua has made some questionable off-field decisions at times, but his on-field effectiveness isn't in question, and the NFL's 2025 regular-season receptions leader has been piling up plenty of catches in practice as Matthew Stafford's favorite target. As long as Nacua stays on the field, he'll likely be a dominant force in the final season of his rookie contract with the Rams.
Verdict
vs 97.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral
Projection vs line38argues against it
Consistency30argues against it
Projection
124.2 REC YDS(×1.08 context)
L5 91.0 · L10 119.7 · med 104.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 75.2 · ceil 166.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 97.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 |
Situational splits
Over 97.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%7/16Medium
Last matchup — @ SEA
Jan 25, 2026
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
SEA allows 37.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Puka Nacua has gone over 97.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 48.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.