Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Puka Nacua has gone over 8.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: BYU
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 8.6 REC · our line

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OutPuka Nacua isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Nacua has made some questionable off-field decisions at times, but his on-field effectiveness isn't in question, and the NFL's 2025 regular-season receptions leader has been piling up plenty of catches in practice as Matthew Stafford's favorite target. As long as Nacua stays on the field, he'll likely be a dominant force in the final season of his rookie contract with the Rams.

Verdict

vs 8.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency56neutral

Projection

8.9 REC(×1.08 context)

L5 7.8 · L10 8.0 · med 8.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 7.0 · ceil 10.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2017 games

53%over

9 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%

Season17 games

53%over

9 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	88%	15/17
	82%	14/17
	59%	10/17
8.5Current	53%	9/17
	41%	7/17
	18%	3/17
	12%	2/17

Last 17 games — REC per game vs. line 8.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 8.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home63%5/8Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%8/16Medium

Last matchup — @ SEA

Jan 25, 2026

24thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

SEA allows 3.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Puka Nacua has gone over 8.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most REC of 32 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.