Los Angeles Rams

Puka Nacua Targets

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Puka Nacua has gone over 11.5 TGT in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: BYU
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 11.7 TGT · our line

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OutPuka Nacua isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Nacua has made some questionable off-field decisions at times, but his on-field effectiveness isn't in question, and the NFL's 2025 regular-season receptions leader has been piling up plenty of catches in practice as Matthew Stafford's favorite target. As long as Nacua stays on the field, he'll likely be a dominant force in the final season of his rookie contract with the Rams.

Verdict

vs 11.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)94supports it

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency60neutral

Projection

13.4 TGT(×1.08 context)

L5 12.6 · L10 12.1 · med 11.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 9.2 · ceil 14.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2017 games

35%over

6 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%

Season17 games

35%over

6 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	88%	15/17
	76%	13/17
	65%	11/17
11.5Current	35%	6/17
	29%	5/17
	29%	5/17
	24%	4/17

Last 17 games — TGT per game vs. line 11.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 11.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%2/8Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%6/16Medium

Last matchup — @ SEA

Jan 25, 2026

9thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

SEA allows 5.8 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 64 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Puka Nacua has gone over 11.5 TGT 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 35% across the full season. SEA has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 9th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.8 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 35%.