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Miami DolphinsQuinn Ewers
#14 · QB · 6' 2" · 209 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 189.7 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutQuinn Ewers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Ewers will once again be inactive as Trevor Lawrence and Nick Mullens are set to be the starting and backup quarterbacks, respectively, for Sunday's contest. The Jaguars acquired Ewers from the Dolphins to be the depth option behind Lawrence, but it appears they may use all of Mullens' practice-squad elevations before resorting to that plan.
Verdict
vs 171.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency55neutral
Projection
170.0 PASS YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 189.7 · L10 189.7 · med 172.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 151.0 · ceil 224.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 171.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 171.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — vs KC
Sep 27, 2026
27thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
KC allows 170.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 3 games, Quinn Ewers has gone over 171.5 PASS YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 27th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (170.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 51.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.