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Miami DolphinsQuinn Ewers Completions
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Quinn Ewers has gone over 15.5 CMP in 2 of his last 3 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 16.7 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutQuinn Ewers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Coach's Decision Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Sep 27, 2026
Ewers will once again be inactive as Trevor Lawrence and Nick Mullens are set to be the starting and backup quarterbacks, respectively, for Sunday's contest. The Jaguars acquired Ewers from the Dolphins to be the depth option behind Lawrence, but it appears they may use all of Mullens' practice-squad elevations before resorting to that plan.
Verdict
vs 15.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency75supports it
Projection
15.2 CMP(×0.92 context)
L5 16.7 · L10 16.7 · med 16.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 14.8 · ceil 18.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 53 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 103 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Last 203 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Season3 games
67%over
2 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–94%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 100% | 3/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 15.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Situational splits
Over 15.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away100%1/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — vs KC
Sep 27, 2026
22ndof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
KC allows 17.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 3 games, Quinn Ewers has gone over 15.5 CMP 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 22nd-most CMP of 32 teams (17.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.
More Quinn Ewers research
Quinn Ewers — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Ewers Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Ewers Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Ewers Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.