Miami Dolphins

Quinn Ewers Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Quinn Ewers has gone over 9.5 FS in 1 of his last 3 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 11.4 FS · our line

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OutQuinn Ewers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Per Kelly, Ewers has been performing well, connecting with tight end Ben Sims and rookie undrafted free-agent wide receiver Donaven McCulley. As the offseason progresses, Ewers will continue to compete with 2025 sixth-rounder Cam Miller and rookie undrafted free agent Mark Gronowski for the Dolphins' backup QB role.

Verdict

vs 9.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 34% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line34argues against it

Consistency54neutral

Projection

11.3 FS

L5 11.4 · L10 11.4 · med 9.4

Consistency

Steady

floor 9.1 · ceil 13.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 53 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 103 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 203 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Season3 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	3/3
	100%	3/3
	100%	3/3
9.5Current	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3

Last 3 games — FS per game vs. line 9.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 9.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%1/2Low

Last matchup — @ NE

Jan 4, 2026

30thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

NE allows 13.3 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 22 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 3 games, Quinn Ewers has gone over 9.5 FS 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 30th-most FS of 32 teams (13.3 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.