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Washington CommandersRachaad White Carries
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Rachaad White has gone over 9.5 CAR in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Linepays more
Carries · season avg 9.3 CAR · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRachaad White isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Commanders fell into catch-up mode throughout the second half, a situation tailor-made for White's pass-catching acumen. The veteran offseason addition saw a hefty workload as a result, recording four more catches on four additional targets than he'd seen in Week 1. White is likely to continue in a complementary role behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt for the time being, but the former figures to continue seeing plenty of run anytime the Commanders are trailing.
Verdict
vs 9.5 CARCarriesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 30% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency40argues against it
Projection
6.8 CAR(×0.83 context)
L5 7.4 · L10 8.7 · med 8.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.8 · ceil 11.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)
CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 12/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 9.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 27% | 4/15 | ||
| 20% | 3/15 | ||
| 20% | 3/15 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 27, 2026
25thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs
SEA allows 9.5 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rachaad White has gone over 9.5 CAR 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 25th-most CAR of 32 teams (9.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 6.5 CAR- No-vig fair (over)
- 44.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 55.5%
Best Over
Caesars+112
-5.7% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-135
-3.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-14.3%
Our model puts the over at 30.1% vs the market's no-vig 44.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Carries (CAR)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (6.5 CAR). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.
More Rachaad White research
Rachaad White — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
White Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
White Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
White Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
White Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.