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Washington CommandersRachaad White
#1 · RB · 6' 0" · 214 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 40.1 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRachaad White isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Commanders also have Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Kaytron Allen, Jerome Ford and Jeremy McNichols competing for playing time, with Croskey-Merritt presumably being the other favorite to start. White easily has the most NFL experience of the group as both a rusher and pass catcher, but his efficiency on the ground was often a negative in Tampa Bay -- which is why he settled for a one-year, $2 million contract after piling up 4,106 yards from scrimmage and 25 TDs in four seasons. He's making a good impression with his new team and seems locked in for a Week 1 role, though it remains to be seen if White will get considerable rushing volume or be deployed more like a passing-down specialist.
Verdict
vs 38.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency35argues against it
Projection
35.2 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 42.0 · L10 42.7 · med 39.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 27.8 · ceil 52.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 38.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 38% | 5/13 |
Situational splits
Over 38.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%2/6Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days42%5/12Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt out+8.8 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
44.1 RUSH YDS
43% over 38.5
With (6g)
35.3 RUSH YDS
50% over 38.5
Last matchup — vs CAR
Jan 3, 2026
18thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CAR allows 48.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rachaad White has gone over 38.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 18th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (48.5 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 15.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.