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Washington CommandersRachaad White Receiving Yards
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Rachaad White has gone over 11.5 REC YDS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 13.3 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutRachaad White isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Commanders fell into catch-up mode throughout the second half, a situation tailor-made for White's pass-catching acumen. The veteran offseason addition saw a hefty workload as a result, recording four more catches on four additional targets than he'd seen in Week 1. White is likely to continue in a complementary role behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt for the time being, but the former figures to continue seeing plenty of run anytime the Commanders are trailing.
Verdict
vs 11.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
9.6 REC YDS(×0.83 context)
L5 8.8 · L10 12.4 · med 13.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.2 · ceil 23.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Situational splits
Over 11.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 27, 2026
12thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs
SEA allows 22.0 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rachaad White has gone over 11.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 12th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (22.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 10.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 11.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.2%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.8%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.4% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-7.9%
Our model puts the over at 42.3% vs the market's no-vig 50.2%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (11.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Rachaad White research
Rachaad White — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
White Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
White Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
White Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
White Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.