Washington Commanders

Rachaad White Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rachaad White has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 6 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Arizona State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.3 REC TD · our line

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OutRachaad White isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Most of White's production came during a three-play span on Washington's final possession, as he ripped off a 33-yard run down to the four-yard line, followed by a three-yard gain and a one-yard touchdown run to put the game out of reach. The Commanders have divided up backfield duties while Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groin) is on IR, as Austin Ekeler notched eight carries, while Jeremy McNichols (foot) had five carries and one catch prior to exiting in the second half. White continues to have the highest touch floor among Washington's available running backs heading into Week 9 against the Rams, and he has scored in three of the last four games, with the previous two touchdowns both coming on receptions.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line71supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.3 REC TD(×0.96 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Last 206 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Season6 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	2/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

Next matchup — vs LAR

Nov 8, 2026

20thof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

LAR allows 0.1 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 6 games, Rachaad White has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 20th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.