Kansas City Chiefs

Rashee Rice Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rashee Rice has gone over 12 FS in 7 of his last 9 decided games (78%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: SMU
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 17.8 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutRashee Rice isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Rice finished with the Chiefs' third-highest receiving yardage total and turned in a 31-yard grab along the way. The 2023 second-round pick's boost in production was a welcome sight for fantasy managers after he'd managed a 2-19-1 line in Week 1, and given Patrick Mahomes already looks close to full health after last December's season-ending knee injury, Rice's outlook as Kansas City's No. 1 receiver should only get brighter as the season unfolds. Rice and the rest of the Chiefs' offense is in a premium spot in Week 3, as they'll pay a visit to the winless Dolphins next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 12 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 83% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line83supports it

Consistency32argues against it

Projection

18.1 FS(×1.13 context)

L5 16.7 · L10 17.8 · med 18.6

Consistency

Variable

floor 11.2 · ceil 24.1

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 109 games

78%over

7 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 45%–94%

Last 209 games

78%over

7 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 45%–94%

Season9 games

78%over

7 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 45%–94%

Last 9 games — FS per game vs. line 12.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 12 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home83%5/6Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days75%6/8Low

Next matchup — @ MIA

Sep 27, 2026

28thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

MIA allows 6.3 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, Rashee Rice has gone over 12 FS 7 of 9 decided times (78%) — versus 78% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 28th-most FS of 32 teams (6.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 78%.