Kansas City Chiefs

Rashee Rice Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rashee Rice has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 9 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: SMU
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.6 REC TD · our line

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OutRashee Rice isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Rice finished with the Chiefs' third-highest receiving yardage total and turned in a 31-yard grab along the way. The 2023 second-round pick's boost in production was a welcome sight for fantasy managers after he'd managed a 2-19-1 line in Week 1, and given Patrick Mahomes already looks close to full health after last December's season-ending knee injury, Rice's outlook as Kansas City's No. 1 receiver should only get brighter as the season unfolds. Rice and the rest of the Chiefs' offense is in a premium spot in Week 3, as they'll pay a visit to the winless Dolphins next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line68supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 REC TD(×1.13 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.4

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 109 games

33%over

3 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%

Last 209 games

33%over

3 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%

Season9 games

33%over

3 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	3/9
	22%	2/9
	0%	0/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days25%2/8Low

Next matchup — @ MIA

Sep 27, 2026

24thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

MIA allows 0.1 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, Rashee Rice has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 9 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.