Kansas City Chiefs

Rashee Rice Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Dec 14, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rashee Rice has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 8 decided games (38%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: SMU
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.6 REC TD · our line

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OutRashee Rice isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

As Rice works his way back from an offseason knee procedure with a ramp-up period, Pete Sweeney of the Kansas City Star relays that the wideout hasn't been logging reps in team drills. That context has enabled rookie fifth-rounder Cyrus Allen to open some eyes early on in training camp, but once Rice upgrades his practice participation level, he'll step back into a prominent role in a WR corps that also features fellow returnees Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)89supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.5 REC TD(×1.07 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 108 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Last 208 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Season8 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	38%	3/8
	25%	2/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days29%2/7Low

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kenneth Walker III out+1.0 REC TD when he sits

Without (5g)

1.0 REC TD

60% over 0.5

With (3g)

0.0 REC TD

0% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs LAC

Dec 14, 2025

26thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

LAC allows 0.2 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 57 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Rashee Rice has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.