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Kansas City ChiefsRashee Rice Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Rashee Rice has gone over 5 REC in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- SMU
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 6.5 REC · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receptions (REC)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutRashee Rice isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Rice is off the injury report Thursday after kicking off Week 9 prep with a limited session Wednesday. The oft-injured wide receiver has been limited to five appearances this season, one of which he left before recording a catch, but he has 20 catches for 243 yards and two touchdowns across the other four games. With Rice getting healthier, he could feast Sunday against a Jets defense that's allowing 30.7 points per game during an active three-game losing streak.
Verdict
vs 5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line73supports it
Consistency57neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
6.4 REC(×1.00 context)
L5 5.8 · L10 6.4 · med 7.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 4.0 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2011 games
73%over
8 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 43%–90%Season11 games
73%over
8 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 43%–90%Situational splits
Over 5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days70%7/10Low
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Nov 8, 2026
14thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
NYJ allows 3.5 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 21 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Rashee Rice has gone over 5 REC 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 73% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 14th-most REC of 32 teams (3.5 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 5.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 43.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 56.4%
Best Over
Caesars+118
-5.1% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-150
-5.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+29.2%
Our model puts the over at 72.8% vs the market's no-vig 43.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 73%.
More Rashee Rice research
Rashee Rice — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Rice Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Rice Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Rice Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.