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Philadelphia EaglesSaquon Barkley
#26 · RB · 6' 0" · 233 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 13 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 76.1 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSaquon Barkley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After sitting out Wednesday's session due to lingering hamstring and back injuries, Barkley ended Week 9 prep with back-to-back limited practices, which was enough to get the all-clear ahead of Sunday. He gutted out a 32 percent snap share this past Sunday in Washington en route to 14 touches for 54 yards from scrimmage and one rushing TD while splitting the backfield with Elijah Mitchell (15 touches for 37 total yards).
Verdict
vs 73.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency23argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
67.1 RUSH YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 73.8 · L10 77.9 · med 80.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 44.0 · ceil 106.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 73.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 |
Situational splits
Over 73.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home83%5/6Low
Away30%3/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Makai Lemon out+13.6 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (13g)
78.6 RUSH YDS
46% over 73.5
With (3g)
65.0 RUSH YDS
67% over 73.5
Next matchup — vs NYG
Nov 8, 2026
9thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NYG allows 53.2 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Saquon Barkley has gone over 73.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYG has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (53.2 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 35.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 53.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.2%
Best Over
Caesars-102
-1.3% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-114
-5.9% EV
Model vs market (over)-6.7%
Our model puts the over at 43.2% vs the market's no-vig 49.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (53.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.