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Philadelphia EaglesSaquon Barkley
#26 · RB · 6' 0" · 233 lb · 17 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 16 of these 17 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 76.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Saquon Barkley's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Shoulder Stinger
Barkley appeared to be favoring his neck and left shoulder after he was tackled to the ground on a carry during the Eagles' first offensive play of the game. The running back headed to the locker room shortly after the play in question and is receiving further treatment for the injury while the Eagles determine whether or not he's able to return. Tank Bigsby and Will Shipley will likely share work out of the backfield if Barkley ends up being shut down for the rest of the contest.
Verdict
vs 68.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 38% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line38argues against it
Consistency27argues against it
Projection
89.2 RUSH YDS(×1.05 context)
L5 93.4 · L10 81.0 · med 80.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 48.0 · ceil 102.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 68.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 |
Situational splits
Over 68.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%8/16Medium
Next matchup — @ CHI
Sep 29, 2026
13thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CHI allows 49.0 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Saquon Barkley has gone over 68.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 47% across the full season. CHI has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 13th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (49.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 33.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 76.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+11.6%
Our model puts the over at 61.6% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (77 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.