Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley Targets

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Saquon Barkley has gone over 2.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.3 TGT · our line

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OutSaquon Barkley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mannion is overhauling the Philadelphia offense, including new terminology, while head coach Nick Sirianni shifts to a more hands-off, executive role. That could always change if things don't go well early in the season, but it nonetheless sounds promising for Barkley in light of his disappointing 2025 campaign in a stagnant offense. Of course, he's not the only one who will need to adjust to a new scheme, with fantasy results partially depending on how QB Jalen Hurts and the offensive line respond to Mannion's changes.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)65supports it

Projection vs line63supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

3.4 TGT(×1.07 context)

L5 2.6 · L10 3.3 · med 2.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 2.0 · ceil 5.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

56%over

9 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%

Season16 games

56%over

9 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	94%	15/16
	88%	14/16
2.5Current	56%	9/16
	38%	6/16
	31%	5/16
	13%	2/16

Last 16 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home71%5/7Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days53%8/15Low

Last matchup — vs SF

Jan 11, 2026

4thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

SF allows 3.1 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 37 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Saquon Barkley has gone over 2.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 56% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 4th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.1 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.