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Philadelphia EaglesSaquon Barkley Carries
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Saquon Barkley has gone over 18.5 CAR in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Carries · season avg 17.8 CAR · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutSaquon Barkley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Barkley has mustered a meager 2.0 yards per carry over the past two games while playing through hamstring and back injuries, but he also has both of Philadelphia's touchdowns over that span, including a three-yard rushing score in the second quarter Sunday. It has been a slog offensively for the Eagles, who have tried first Tanner McKee and now Joe Milton under center since losing starting QB Jalen Hurts (IR, calf) likely for the season while also playing without top two wide receivers DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle). It's fair to wonder if Barkley will eventually be shut down as well to get a chance to heal as the 2-7 Eagles drop out of contention, but at least a Week 10 bye will offer him a respite before Philadelphia's Week 11 home game against the Steelers.
Verdict
vs 18.5 CARCarriesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency56neutral
Projection
16.3 CAR(×0.95 context)
L5 17.6 · L10 17.4 · med 17.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 13.0 · ceil 22.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)
CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 18.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 31% | 5/16 | ||
| 25% | 4/16 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%7/15Low
With a teammate out
How this CAR line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Makai Lemon out+4.3 CAR when he sits
Without (13g)
18.6 CAR
62% over 18.5
With (3g)
14.3 CAR
0% over 18.5
Last matchup — @ WSH
Nov 1, 2026
26thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs
WSH allows 9.9 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Saquon Barkley has gone over 18.5 CAR 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 26th-most CAR of 32 teams (9.9 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 11.5 CAR- No-vig fair (over)
- 47.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 52.9%
Best Over
DraftKings+105
-3.4% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-125
-4.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-9.6%
Our model puts the over at 37.5% vs the market's no-vig 47.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Carries (CAR)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (11.5 CAR). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Saquon Barkley research
Saquon Barkley — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Barkley Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Barkley Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Barkley Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Barkley Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.