Philadelphia Eagles

Tank Bigsby Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tank Bigsby has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 2 of his last 7 decided games (29%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Auburn
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.3 RUSH TD · our line

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OutTank Bigsby isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Bigsby was acquired from the Jaguars prior to Week 2 last season, and he went on to rush for 344 yards and two touchdowns on 58 carries across 16 regular-season appearances for Philadelphia. His 5.9 yards per carry would have ranked first in the NFL if Bigsby had enough carries to qualify. Though the Eagles also currently employ Will Shipley, Dameon Pierce and Elijah Mitchell at running back, Bigsby appears set to be Barkley's clear No. 2 and someone who will be worth stashing on fantasy benches in the event of a Barkley injury.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line69supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 RUSH TD(×1.07 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Last 207 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Season7 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	29%	2/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home17%1/6Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%2/6Low

Last matchup — vs SF

Jan 11, 2026

9thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

SF allows 0.4 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 37 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 7 games, Tank Bigsby has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 9th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.