Philadelphia Eagles

Tank Bigsby Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tank Bigsby has gone over 0.5 TGT in 3 of his last 8 decided games (38%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Auburn
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 0.5 TGT · our line

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OutTank Bigsby isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The fourth-year RB got the Eagles on the board in the second quarter with a two-yard TD plunge, and Bigsby led the backfield in totes and rushing yards after Saquon Barkley picked up a stinger on the first play from scrimmage. Barkley was able to return after halftime, but he'll be sent for further testing and isn't guaranteed to be 100 percent for a Week 3 road trip to Chicago. If he's sidelined or has his workload scaled back, Bigsby would be poised to benefit.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it

Projection vs line50neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.8 TGT(×1.10 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Last 208 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Season8 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	38%	3/8
	13%	1/8
	0%	0/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — TGT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%3/7Low

Next matchup — @ CHI

Sep 29, 2026

30thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

CHI allows 1.3 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Tank Bigsby has gone over 0.5 TGT 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. CHI has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 30th-most TGT of 32 teams (1.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.