Loading…
Washington CommandersTerry McLaurin
#17 · WR · 6' 0" · 210 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 58.2 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTerry McLaurin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Following a 2025 regular season in which he recorded a 38/582/3 receiving line on 60 targets in 10 contests, McLaurin -- who topped 1,000 receiving yards 2020-2024 -- returns as QB Jayden Daniels' top WR target, a context that should garner the 2019 third-rounder plenty of volume in 2026. It remains to been seen how the depth chart will shake out beyond McLaurin, however, and to that end Luke McCaffrey, Antonio Williams, Treylon Burks, Dyami Brown and Jaylin Lane are set to compete for roles this summer. Additionally, it's still possible that the Commanders bring in some veteran pass-catching help, with Brandon Aiyuk, who appears to have played his last snap with the 49ers, having been mentioned as a possibility on that front.
Verdict
vs 59.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency48neutral
Projection
53.2 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 56.6 · L10 58.2 · med 55.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 46.6 · ceil 70.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Season10 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 59.5Current | 40% | 4/10 | |
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 | ||
| 40% | 4/10 |
Situational splits
Over 59.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%3/5Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rachaad White out+15.5 REC YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
62.9 REC YDS
43% over 59.5
With (3g)
47.3 REC YDS
33% over 59.5
Last matchup — @ PHI
Jan 4, 2026
20thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
PHI allows 40.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 62 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Terry McLaurin has gone over 59.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. PHI has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 20th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (40.9 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 18.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.