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Washington CommandersTerry McLaurin
#17 · WR · 6' 0" · 210 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 10 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 53.8 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTerry McLaurin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The veteran receiver led the Commanders in receiving yards and targets, but his efficiency left plenty to be desired. McLaurin's day would have also looked a lot different if he'd been able to keep his balance on an early fourth-quarter deep pass from Marcus Mariota on which the veteran receiver was running wide open down the right sideline. The elbow injury suffered by Jayden Daniels on the last play of the first half also didn't help McLaurin's cause, and it's possible an extended absence on the part of the star signal-caller affects the wideout's performance in coming weeks.
Verdict
vs 45.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency37argues against it
Projection
42.0 REC YDS(×0.85 context)
L5 47.4 · L10 57.1 · med 55.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 42.4 · ceil 67.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2012 games
75%over
9 over · 3 under
Medium confidence95% CI 47%–91%Season12 games
75%over
9 over · 3 under
Medium confidence95% CI 47%–91%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 9/12 | ||
| 75% | 9/12 | ||
| 75% | 9/12 | ||
| 45.5Current | 75% | 9/12 | |
| 75% | 9/12 | ||
| 75% | 9/12 | ||
| 67% | 8/12 |
Situational splits
Over 45.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home80%4/5Low
Away71%5/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days82%9/11Medium
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 27, 2026
32ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
SEA allows 21.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Terry McLaurin has gone over 45.5 REC YDS 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 75% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 32nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (21.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 20.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 53.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.7%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.3% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-111
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+0.6%
Our model puts the over at 50.8% vs the market's no-vig 50.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (53.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 75%.