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Washington CommandersTerry McLaurin Targets
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Terry McLaurin has gone over 4.5 TGT in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 6.1 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTerry McLaurin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The veteran receiver led the Commanders in receiving yards and targets, but his efficiency left plenty to be desired. McLaurin's day would have also looked a lot different if he'd been able to keep his balance on an early fourth-quarter deep pass from Marcus Mariota on which the veteran receiver was running wide open down the right sideline. The elbow injury suffered by Jayden Daniels on the last play of the first half also didn't help McLaurin's cause, and it's possible an extended absence on the part of the star signal-caller affects the wideout's performance in coming weeks.
Verdict
vs 4.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency17argues against it
Projection
5.2 TGT(×0.85 context)
L5 5.6 · L10 6.0 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 8.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2012 games
42%over
5 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%Season12 games
42%over
5 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 12/12 | ||
| 100% | 12/12 | ||
| 100% | 12/12 | ||
| 4.5Current | 42% | 5/12 | |
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 | ||
| 25% | 3/12 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
Next matchup — vs SEA
Sep 27, 2026
23rdof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
SEA allows 4.8 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Terry McLaurin has gone over 4.5 TGT 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 42% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 23rd-most TGT of 32 teams (4.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.
More Terry McLaurin research
Terry McLaurin — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
McLaurin Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
McLaurin Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
McLaurin Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.