Washington Commanders

Terry McLaurin Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Terry McLaurin has gone over 3.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 3.8 REC · our line

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OutTerry McLaurin isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Following a 2025 regular season in which he recorded a 38/582/3 receiving line on 60 targets in 10 contests, McLaurin -- who topped 1,000 receiving yards 2020-2024 -- returns as QB Jayden Daniels' top WR target, a context that should garner the 2019 third-rounder plenty of volume in 2026. It remains to been seen how the depth chart will shake out beyond McLaurin, however, and to that end Luke McCaffrey, Antonio Williams, Treylon Burks, Dyami Brown and Jaylin Lane are set to compete for roles this summer. Additionally, it's still possible that the Commanders bring in some veteran pass-catching help, with Brandon Aiyuk, who appears to have played his last snap with the 49ers, having been mentioned as a possibility on that front.

Verdict

vs 3.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency39argues against it

Projection

3.5 REC(×0.90 context)

L5 3.6 · L10 3.8 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 5.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Season10 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	10/10
	100%	10/10
	90%	9/10
3.5Current	40%	4/10
	30%	3/10
	10%	1/10
	10%	1/10

Last 10 games — REC per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days44%4/9Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rachaad White out+1.6 REC when he sits

Without (7g)

4.3 REC

57% over 3.5

With (3g)

2.7 REC

0% over 3.5

Last matchup — @ PHI

Jan 4, 2026

29thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

PHI allows 3.1 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 62 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Terry McLaurin has gone over 3.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most REC of 32 teams (3.1 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.