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Tennessee TitansTony Pollard
#20 · RB · 6' 0" · 209 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Memphis
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 80.0 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTony Pollard isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Pollard rumbled for a 40-yard touchdown in the first quarter and added a one-yard rushing TD in the third quarter, giving him five rushing scores in the last two games. He scored only once in the first six games of the season, but Pollard's recent hot streak has him up to six touchdowns, surpassing his total of five from each of his previous two regular seasons in Tennessee. Pollard was also brought down in Tennessee's end zone for a safety to break a 21-21 tie in the final minute of the third quarter. The surging running back has rushed for 246 yards over the past two games but could have a tough time maintaining his momentum after the Titans' Week 9 bye, as he'll return to action in a daunting Week 10 matchup against Jacksonville's league-best run defense.
Verdict
vs 73.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line70supports it
Consistency40argues against it
Projection
92.0 RUSH YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 84.4 · L10 80.0 · med 74.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 54.4 · ceil 108.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 73.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 73.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Last matchup — @ CIN
Nov 1, 2026
16thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CIN allows 46.2 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Tony Pollard has gone over 73.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 16th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (46.2 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 29.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.