Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard Receptions

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tony Pollard has gone over 1.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Memphis
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.9 REC · our line

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OutTony Pollard isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The veteran RB had 15 touches to Tyjae Spears' nine, as Pollard continues to pace the Titans' backfield in volume. Spears amassed 70 scrimmage yards to Pollard's 65, however, as neither back has made much of a case in the early going to take over the clear lead role. Pollard will look for his first touchdown of the season in a Week 3 road tilt against the Giants.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.9 REC(×1.01 context)

L5 1.2 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2017 games

53%over

9 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%

Season17 games

53%over

9 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	82%	14/17
1.5Current	53%	9/17
	35%	6/17
	12%	2/17
	6%	1/17

Last 17 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home56%5/9Low

Away50%4/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%9/16Medium

Next matchup — @ NYG

Sep 27, 2026

1stof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

NYG allows 5.0 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tony Pollard has gone over 1.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 53% across the full season. NYG has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 1st-most REC of 32 teams (5.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

1 book @ 1.5 REC

No-vig fair (over): 47.6%
No-vig fair (under): 52.4%

Best Over

Sleeper-115

-11.0% EV

Best Under

Sleeper-143

-11.0% EV

Model vs market (over)+5.5%

Our model puts the over at 53.1% vs the market's no-vig 47.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.