Tennessee Titans

Tony Pollard Carries

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tony Pollard has gone over 13.5 CAR in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Memphis
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 14.2 CAR · our line

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OutTony Pollard isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The veteran RB had 15 touches to Tyjae Spears' nine, as Pollard continues to pace the Titans' backfield in volume. Spears amassed 70 scrimmage yards to Pollard's 65, however, as neither back has made much of a case in the early going to take over the clear lead role. Pollard will look for his first touchdown of the season in a Week 3 road tilt against the Giants.

Verdict

vs 13.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)85supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency46neutral

Projection

15.1 CAR(×1.01 context)

L5 16.2 · L10 14.7 · med 14.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 10.0 · ceil 18.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

100%over

5 over · 0 under

Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2018 games

61%over

11 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 39%–80%

Season18 games

61%over

11 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 39%–80%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	72%	13/18
	61%	11/18
	61%	11/18
13.5Current	61%	11/18
	33%	6/18
	33%	6/18
	28%	5/18

Last 18 games — CAR per game vs. line 13.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 13.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%5/10Low

Away75%6/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days59%10/17Medium

Next matchup — @ NYG

Sep 27, 2026

11thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

NYG allows 12.0 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tony Pollard has gone over 13.5 CAR 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 61% across the full season. NYG has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 11th-most CAR of 32 teams (12.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 61%.