New Orleans Saints

Travis Etienne Jr. Carries

Stats updated: Sep 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Travis Etienne Jr. has gone over 14.5 CAR in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Clemson
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 14.5 CAR · our line

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OutTravis Etienne Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Hamstring Strain
Est. return:: Nov 8, 2026

Etienne has missed the required four games on IR due to a strained left hamstring, but even with the benefit of a Week 8 bye, he hasn't gained clearance to mix into drills. Moore told Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana on Monday that Etienne has a chance to return to practice this week, but with no on-field work to begin Week 9 prep, he seems to be on the outside looking in to have enough time to be activated for Sunday's contest against the Browns.

Verdict

vs 14.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency57neutral

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

12.2 CAR(×0.97 context)

L5 10.8 · L10 13.1 · med 12.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 12.0 · ceil 17.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2019 games

47%over

9 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 27%–68%

Season19 games

47%over

9 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 27%–68%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	84%	16/19
	63%	12/19
	58%	11/19
14.5Current	47%	9/19
	42%	8/19
	26%	5/19
	21%	4/19

Last 19 games — CAR per game vs. line 14.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 14.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%3/9Low

Away60%6/10Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%9/18Medium

Next matchup — vs CLE

Nov 8, 2026

3rdof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

CLE allows 13.2 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 14 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Travis Etienne Jr. has gone over 14.5 CAR 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. CLE has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 3rd-most CAR of 32 teams (13.2 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.