New Orleans Saints

Travis Etienne Jr. Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Travis Etienne Jr. has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Clemson
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.4 RUSH TD · PrizePicks line

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OutTravis Etienne Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The former Jaguar didn't see a lot of work on the ground, but Etienne set a new career high in receptions in his Saints debut as Tyler Shough attempted 56 passes as part of a big second-half comeback to force OT. Etienne has flashed real pass-catching upside in the past, posting a 58-476-1 line on 73 targets in 2023, so this usage in New Orleans may not have been purely due to the game situation. Etienne will look to make his first trip to the end zone of the year in Week 2 on the road against the Ravens.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 19% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)23argues against it

Projection vs line30argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 RUSH TD(×0.89 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2018 games

28%over

5 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 12%–51%

Season18 games

28%over

5 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 12%–51%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	28%	5/18
	11%	2/18
	0%	0/18
	0%	0/18

Last 18 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%3/9Low

Away22%2/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days29%5/17Medium

Next matchup — @ BAL

Sep 20, 2026

1stof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

BAL allows 2.0 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Travis Etienne Jr. has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 28% across the full season. BAL has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 1st-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (2.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 28%.