New Orleans Saints

Travis Etienne Jr. Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Travis Etienne Jr. has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Clemson
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.4 RUSH TD · our line

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OutTravis Etienne Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Hamstring Strain
Est. return:: Nov 8, 2026

Etienne has missed the required four games on IR due to a strained left hamstring, but even with the benefit of a Week 8 bye, he hasn't gained clearance to mix into drills. Moore told Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana on Monday that Etienne has a chance to return to practice this week, but with no on-field work to begin Week 9 prep, he seems to be on the outside looking in to have enough time to be activated for Sunday's contest against the Browns.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 82% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line82supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

0.2 RUSH TD(×0.91 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2019 games

26%over

5 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 12%–49%

Season19 games

26%over

5 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 12%–49%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	26%	5/19
	11%	2/19
	0%	0/19
	0%	0/19

Last 19 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%3/9Low

Away20%2/10Low

Days since last game

3+ days28%5/18Medium

Next matchup — vs CLE

Nov 8, 2026

12thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

CLE allows 0.4 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 14 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Travis Etienne Jr. has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 26% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 12th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 26%.