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Los Angeles ChargersTre' Harris
#9 · WR · 6' 3" · 210 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Jan 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ole Miss
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 26.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTre' Harris isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
With Keenan Allen still unsigned and looking like a poor fit for new OC Mike McDaniel's speed-based offense, Harris appears ticketed for a bigger offensive role in his second season. Harris appeared in all 17 regular-season games as a rookie, making 10 starts, but he logged just 49 percent of the offensive snaps and turned 43 targets into a 30-324-1 receiving line. Allen played 55 percent of the Chargers' offensive snaps but paced the team with 122 targets and 81 catches. Harris will need to fend off fourth-round rookie Brenen Thompson, but Harris certainly has a chance to see significantly more playing time and pass volume in 2026.
Verdict
vs 25.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line38argues against it
Consistency10argues against it
Projection
31.2 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 33.8 · L10 25.2 · med 21.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 18.0 · ceil 33.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 25.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 |
Situational splits
Over 25.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home20%1/5Low
Away71%5/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Omarion Hampton out-15.3 REC YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
19.7 REC YDS
43% over 25.5
With (5g)
35.0 REC YDS
60% over 25.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Jan 12, 2026
31stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 36.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tre' Harris has gone over 25.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 14.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.