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Los Angeles ChargersTre' Harris Targets
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tre' Harris has gone over 4.5 TGT in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ole Miss
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 4.7 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTre' Harris isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After missing Week 6 with a hamstring injury, Harris was healthy coming out of the Week 7 bye but played pretty clearly behind both Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston against the Rams. Harris ran just 20 routes to McConkey's 34 and Johnston's 30. Harris would see a big boost if Johnston gets traded ahead of next week's deadline.
Verdict
vs 4.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency47neutral
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
4.2 TGT(×0.94 context)
L5 4.4 · L10 4.7 · med 4.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 100% | 6/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 4.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 | ||
| 0% | 0/6 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Next matchup — vs HOU
Nov 8, 2026
3rdof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
HOU allows 6.6 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 23 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Tre' Harris has gone over 4.5 TGT 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most TGT of 32 teams (6.6 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Tre' Harris research
Tre' Harris — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Harris Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Harris Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Harris Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.