Los Angeles Chargers

Tre' Harris Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tre' Harris has gone over 5.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ole Miss
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 5.6 FS · our line

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OutTre' Harris isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

With Keenan Allen still unsigned and looking like a poor fit for new OC Mike McDaniel's speed-based offense, Harris appears ticketed for a bigger offensive role in his second season. Harris appeared in all 17 regular-season games as a rookie, making 10 starts, but he logged just 49 percent of the offensive snaps and turned 43 targets into a 30-324-1 receiving line. Allen played 55 percent of the Chargers' offensive snaps but paced the team with 122 targets and 81 catches. Harris will need to fend off fourth-round rookie Brenen Thompson, but Harris certainly has a chance to see significantly more playing time and pass volume in 2026.

Verdict

vs 5.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency35argues against it

Projection

6.1 FS(×1.10 context)

L5 5.8 · L10 5.5 · med 4.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.8 · ceil 7.7

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2012 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Season12 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	92%	11/12
	83%	10/12
	58%	7/12
5.5Current	42%	5/12
	33%	4/12
	25%	3/12
	17%	2/12

Last 12 games — FS per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home40%2/5Low

Away43%3/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days45%5/11Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Omarion Hampton out-0.7 FS when he sits

Without (7g)

5.3 FS

43% over 5.5

With (5g)

6.0 FS

40% over 5.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Jan 12, 2026

24thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 8.6 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tre' Harris has gone over 5.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 42% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most FS of 32 teams (8.6 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.