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New England PatriotsTreVeyon Henderson
#32 · RB · 5' 10" · 202 lb · 17 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 16 of these 17 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 59.6 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
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Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutTreVeyon Henderson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Henderson didn't take long to make an impact in his season debut after sitting out the 13-10 Week 1 loss to Seattle. The 2025 second-round pick opened the scoring with a 39-yard touchdown run 6:38 into Sunday's game and handled 17 touches compared to just seven for Rhamondre Stevenson, who lost a fumble on the drive preceding Henderson's touchdown run. Henderson had 180 carries to Stevenson's 130 during the 2025 regular season. Both running backs are likely to be involved in the Week 3 game plan against the Jaguars.
Verdict
vs 35.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)78supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
45.6 RUSH YDS(×0.83 context)
L5 40.0 · L10 62.5 · med 64.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 27.0 · ceil 75.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2017 games
59%over
10 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–78%Season17 games
59%over
10 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–78%Situational splits
Over 35.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home58%7/12Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%10/16Medium
Next matchup — @ JAX
Sep 27, 2026
29thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
JAX allows 27.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, TreVeyon Henderson has gone over 35.5 RUSH YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 59% across the full season. JAX has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 29th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (27.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 38.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 59%.