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New England PatriotsTreVeyon Henderson
#32 · RB · 5' 10" · 202 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 22, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 62.4 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm TreVeyon Henderson's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Illness Not Specified
Henderson also didn't practice this past Thursday and Friday, and then missed the Patriots' Week 8 win over the Dolphins. The running back's absence to begin Week 9 prep suggests that he's no lock to play Sunday against the Packers, but Henderson's outlook on that front would no doubt improve with a return to the field within the next couple of days. While Henderson was sidelined in Miami, Rhamondre Stevenson paced New England's rushing attack, and Corey Kiner and Lan Larison mixed in behind him.
Verdict
vs 24.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsHot overFireFactor 56/100· model 82% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line82supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
48.9 RUSH YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 38.2 · L10 52.6 · med 36.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 27.0 · ceil 76.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2016 games
88%over
14 over · 2 under
Medium confidence95% CI 64%–97%Season16 games
88%over
14 over · 2 under
Medium confidence95% CI 64%–97%Situational splits
Over 24.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home91%10/11Medium
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days87%13/15Medium
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Drake Maye out+25.8 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (12g)
68.8 RUSH YDS
92% over 24.5
With (4g)
43.0 RUSH YDS
75% over 24.5
Rhamondre Stevenson out+25.8 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (12g)
68.8 RUSH YDS
92% over 24.5
With (4g)
43.0 RUSH YDS
75% over 24.5
Next matchup — vs GB
Nov 8, 2026
6thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
GB allows 56.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, TreVeyon Henderson has gone over 24.5 RUSH YDS 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 88% across the full season. GB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (56.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 37.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 24.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
DraftKings-110
-4.6% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-113
-5.7% EV
Model vs market (over)+31.6%
Our model puts the over at 81.5% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (24.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 88%.