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New England PatriotsTreVeyon Henderson Rushing TDs
Stats updated: Oct 22, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
TreVeyon Henderson has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Linepays more
Rushing TDs · season avg 0.6 RUSH TD · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm TreVeyon Henderson's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Illness Not Specified
Henderson also didn't practice this past Thursday and Friday, and then missed the Patriots' Week 8 win over the Dolphins. The running back's looming DNP suggests that he's no lock to play Sunday against the Packers, but Henderson's outlook on that front would no doubt improve with a return to the field in the next couple of days. In his absence against Miami, Rhamondre Stevenson paced New England's rushing attack, while Corey Kiner and Lan Larison mixed in.
Verdict
vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDsNo readFireFactor 2/100· model 27% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)37argues against it
Projection vs line40neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
0.3 RUSH TD(×1.05 context)
L5 0.2 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2016 games
31%over
5 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 14%–56%Season16 games
31%over
5 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 14%–56%Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)
RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 31% | 5/16 | |
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 0% | 0/16 | ||
| 0% | 0/16 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home36%4/11Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%5/15Medium
With a teammate out
How this RUSH TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Drake Maye out+0.4 RUSH TD when he sits
Without (12g)
0.7 RUSH TD
33% over 0.5
With (4g)
0.3 RUSH TD
25% over 0.5
Rhamondre Stevenson out+0.4 RUSH TD when he sits
Without (12g)
0.7 RUSH TD
33% over 0.5
With (4g)
0.3 RUSH TD
25% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs GB
Nov 8, 2026
3rdof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs
GB allows 0.7 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, TreVeyon Henderson has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 31% across the full season. GB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 3rd-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 31%.
More TreVeyon Henderson research
TreVeyon Henderson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Henderson Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Henderson Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Henderson Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Henderson Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.