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New England PatriotsTreVeyon Henderson Targets
Stats updated: Oct 22, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
TreVeyon Henderson has gone over 1.5 TGT in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 2.1 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm TreVeyon Henderson's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Illness Not Specified
Henderson also didn't practice this past Thursday and Friday, and then missed the Patriots' Week 8 win over the Dolphins. The running back's absence to begin Week 9 prep suggests that he's no lock to play Sunday against the Packers, but Henderson's outlook on that front would no doubt improve with a return to the field within the next couple of days. While Henderson was sidelined in Miami, Rhamondre Stevenson paced New England's rushing attack, and Corey Kiner and Lan Larison mixed in behind him.
Verdict
vs 1.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
1.6 TGT(×1.01 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 12/16 | ||
| 1.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 13% | 2/16 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home55%6/11Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
With a teammate out
How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Drake Maye out+1.4 TGT when he sits
Without (12g)
2.4 TGT
58% over 1.5
With (4g)
1.0 TGT
25% over 1.5
Rhamondre Stevenson out+1.4 TGT when he sits
Without (12g)
2.4 TGT
58% over 1.5
With (4g)
1.0 TGT
25% over 1.5
Next matchup — vs GB
Nov 8, 2026
8thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs
GB allows 3.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, TreVeyon Henderson has gone over 1.5 TGT 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 8th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.0 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More TreVeyon Henderson research
TreVeyon Henderson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Henderson Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Henderson Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Henderson Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Henderson Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.