Loading…
New England PatriotsTreVeyon Henderson
#32 · RB · 5' 10" · 202 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 22, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 62.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTreVeyon Henderson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Illness Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 15, 2026
Per Mark Daniels of MassLive.com, Mike Vrabel said that the Patriots won't put a timeline on Henderson's return, while adding, per Lazar, that the team is "just trying to make sure that TreVeyon is cared for and his recovery plan is intact and he's comfortable with it." In the absence of Henderson -- who recently experienced "an unexpected and unusual medical emergency involving a series of unexplained neurological symptoms" -- Rhamondre Stevenson will pace New England's backfield, with Corey Kiner and Lan Larison also mixing in.
Verdict
vs 58.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
47.1 RUSH YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 38.2 · L10 52.6 · med 36.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 27.0 · ceil 76.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 58.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 |
Situational splits
Over 58.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home45%5/11Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%7/15Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Drake Maye out+25.8 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (12g)
68.8 RUSH YDS
58% over 58.5
With (4g)
43.0 RUSH YDS
25% over 58.5
Rhamondre Stevenson out+25.8 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (12g)
68.8 RUSH YDS
58% over 58.5
With (4g)
43.0 RUSH YDS
25% over 58.5
Next matchup — vs GB
Nov 8, 2026
6thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
GB allows 56.3 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, TreVeyon Henderson has gone over 58.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 6th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (56.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 37.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.