Tennessee Titans

Tyjae Spears Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyjae Spears has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 10 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tulane
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutTyjae Spears isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Spears was on the field for only 19 of the Titans' 53 offensive snaps (35.8 percent) and saw noticeably less playing time than lead back Tony Pollard (29 snaps). That said, Spears managed to accumulate 70 yards on nine touches, his most yards in a game since Week 16 of the 2025 season against the Chiefs (105). The fourth-year pro also helped the Titans take the lead late with a 27-yard carry on third-and-22, ultimately leading to a 33-yard field goal from Joey Slye four plays later. The Titans will hit the road for the first time in Week 3 against the Giants.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×1.01 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

0%over

0 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%

Last 2012 games

0%over

0 over · 12 under

High confidence95% CI 0%–24%

Season12 games

0%over

0 over · 12 under

High confidence95% CI 0%–24%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/8Medium

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/11Medium

Next matchup — @ NYG

Sep 27, 2026

1stof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

NYG allows 0.7 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tyjae Spears has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 10 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. NYG has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 1st-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.