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Indianapolis ColtsTyler Warren
#84 · TE · 6' 6" · 256 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 48.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyler Warren isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
As a rookie, the 2025 first-rounder turned a team-high 112 targets into a 76/817/4 receiving line in 17 regular-season contests. As the coming campaign approaches, Warren, as well as WRs Alec Pierce and Josh Downs could see added pass-catching opportunities, with WR Michael Pittman -- who logged 111 targets last season -- having been traded to Pittsburgh. To that end, coach Shane Steichen notes that the second-year TE has been "working on his body and just getting into great physical shape, and coming in and out of breaks...he's made some good plays out here in practice in seven-on-seven, some team situations. So, looking for the next steps in his development.'' In terms of current average draft position, Trey McBride and Brock Bowers lead the way among tight ends, but Warren figures to fall into the next tier of quality fantasy options at the position once the top duo is off the board.
Verdict
vs 44.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency18argues against it
Projection
39.0 REC YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 26.6 · L10 37.8 · med 28.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 26.0 · ceil 69.8
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2017 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Season17 games
47%over
8 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 44.5Current | 47% | 8/17 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 |
Situational splits
Over 44.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%7/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Daniel Jones out-24.3 REC YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
29.5 REC YDS
0% over 44.5
With (13g)
53.8 REC YDS
62% over 44.5
Last matchup — @ HOU
Jan 4, 2026
30thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
HOU allows 20.8 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 38 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tyler Warren has gone over 44.5 REC YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 30th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (20.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 23.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.