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Indianapolis ColtsTyler Warren
#84 · TE · 6' 6" · 256 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 38.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyler Warren isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
In his return from a two-game absence due to a groin injury, Warren tied for the team lead in receptions and set the pace in targets on another forgettable afternoon for the Colts, as Indianapolis dropped to 2-6 on the season and Daniel Jones was benched late. With rumors swirling that both Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor could be traded by the Nov. 10 deadline, Warren could be the biggest skill-position weapon the Colts have during the second half of the season alongside Alec Pierce (IR, heel). Warren's catch and yardage totals Sunday were both his second lowest of the season, and it remains to be seen if he'll be catching passes from either Jones or Anthony Richardson in a Week 9 home matchup against the Cowboys next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 31.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
41.1 REC YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 43.6 · L10 38.5 · med 31.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 18.0 · ceil 55.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 31.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 |
Situational splits
Over 31.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — vs DAL
Nov 8, 2026
23rdof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
DAL allows 22.7 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 6 games, Tyler Warren has gone over 31.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (22.7 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 24.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 42.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-110
-4.5% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+11.2%
Our model puts the over at 61.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (42.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.