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Indianapolis ColtsTyler Warren Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tyler Warren has gone over 4.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Penn State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 4.5 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyler Warren isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Warren opened the scoring with a one-yard touchdown catch, giving him two touchdowns in as many games to begin his sophomore season. The 2025 first-round pick is already halfway to his rookie total of four touchdown catches in 17 games, though Warren also had a rushing TD in 2025. If Alec Pierce (heel) were to miss any additional time after exiting in the first half of Sunday's loss, Warren and Josh Downs would be the top candidates to pick up the slack in the passing game for the run-heavy Colts offense. Warren and the Colts will try to snap a nine-game losing streak dating back to last season when they host the Texans in Week 3.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency44neutral
Projection
4.3 REC(×0.96 context)
L5 4.4 · L10 4.3 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 5.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2019 games
47%over
9 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 27%–68%Season19 games
47%over
9 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 27%–68%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 19/19 | ||
| 95% | 18/19 | ||
| 68% | 13/19 | ||
| 4.5Current | 47% | 9/19 | |
| 21% | 4/19 | ||
| 11% | 2/19 | ||
| 5% | 1/19 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%4/10Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%8/18Medium
Next matchup — vs HOU
Sep 27, 2026
13thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
HOU allows 2.7 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tyler Warren has gone over 4.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. HOU has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 13th-most REC of 32 teams (2.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 4.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 53.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 47.0%
Best Over
Caesars-127
-5.3% EV
Best Under
DraftKings+109
-1.7% EV
Model vs market (over)-9.6%
Our model puts the over at 43.3% vs the market's no-vig 53.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.
More Tyler Warren research
Tyler Warren — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Warren Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Warren Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Warren Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.