Indianapolis Colts

Tyler Warren Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyler Warren has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Penn State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutTyler Warren isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

As a rookie, the 2025 first-rounder turned a team-high 112 targets into a 76/817/4 receiving line in 17 regular-season contests. As the coming campaign approaches, Warren, as well as WRs Alec Pierce and Josh Downs could see added pass-catching opportunities, with WR Michael Pittman -- who logged 111 targets last season -- having been traded to Pittsburgh. To that end, coach Shane Steichen notes that the second-year TE has been "working on his body and just getting into great physical shape, and coming in and out of breaks...he's made some good plays out here in practice in seven-on-seven, some team situations. So, looking for the next steps in his development.'' In terms of current average draft position, Trey McBride and Brock Bowers lead the way among tight ends, but Warren figures to fall into the next tier of quality fantasy options at the position once the top duo is off the board.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 82% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line82supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 REC TD(×1.03 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2017 games

24%over

4 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 10%–47%

Season17 games

24%over

4 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 10%–47%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	24%	4/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%3/9Low

Away13%1/8Medium

Days since last game

3+ days25%4/16Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Daniel Jones out-0.3 REC TD when he sits

Without (4g)

0.0 REC TD

0% over 0.5

With (13g)

0.3 REC TD

31% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ HOU

Jan 4, 2026

13thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

HOU allows 0.2 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 38 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tyler Warren has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 24% across the full season. HOU has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 13th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 24%.