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New York JetsAdonai Mitchell
#10 · WR · 6' 2" · 205 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 46.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAdonai Mitchell isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Mitchell was, specifically, Smith's most-targeted pass-catcher during Tuesday's practice, in which the Jets ran drills to simulate high-pressure situations such as third-and-long. Rosenblatt also notes that Mitchell and Smith connected frequently during 7-on-7 and 11-on-11 drills in May. New York acquired Mitchell via trade with the Colts last November, and across eight games with the team he secured 25 of 59 targets for 312 yards and two scores, including an 8-102-1 performance against the Falcons in Week 13. With the Jets' offense seemingly in position to take a step forward with Smith under center in 2026, Mitchell will have an opportunity to capitalize on a starting role alongside Garrett Wilson and rookie first-round pick Omar Cooper.
Verdict
vs 42.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
47.4 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 49.8 · L10 46.3 · med 42.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 21.2 · ceil 73.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 42.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 33% | 3/9 |
Situational splits
Over 42.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Geno Smith out-25.5 REC YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
29.3 REC YDS
33% over 42.5
With (6g)
54.8 REC YDS
50% over 42.5
Last matchup — vs NE
Dec 28, 2025
31stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 36.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Adonai Mitchell has gone over 42.5 REC YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 31.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.