New York Jets

Adonai Mitchell Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Adonai Mitchell has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutAdonai Mitchell isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mitchell's dozen targets easily led the team, as he was the intended receiver on 29.3 percent of Geno Smith's 41 pass attempts. The defense kept Mitchell in front of them, keeping his longest gain to 15 yards after he produced a 40-yard reception in Week 1 against the Titans. Mitchell is playing virtually every snap for the Jets, as he's cemented himself as the team's WR2 alongside Garrett Wilson. Mitchell will be an upside WR3/4 for fantasy in next Sunday's mouthwatering draw against the Lions' depleted secondary.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 82% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line82supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×1.03 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Season10 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	2/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home20%1/5Low

Away20%1/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days22%2/9Low

Next matchup — @ DET

Sep 27, 2026

14thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

DET allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Adonai Mitchell has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. DET has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 14th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.