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New York JetsAdonai Mitchell Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Adonai Mitchell has gone over 5.5 REC in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Linepays more
Receptions · season avg 3.5 REC · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receptions (REC)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutAdonai Mitchell isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Mitchell's dozen targets easily led the team, as he was the intended receiver on 29.3 percent of Geno Smith's 41 pass attempts. The defense kept Mitchell in front of them, keeping his longest gain to 15 yards after he produced a 40-yard reception in Week 1 against the Titans. Mitchell is playing virtually every snap for the Jets, as he's cemented himself as the team's WR2 alongside Garrett Wilson. Mitchell will be an upside WR3/4 for fantasy in next Sunday's mouthwatering draw against the Lions' depleted secondary.
Verdict
vs 5.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 27% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)36argues against it
Projection vs line41neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
4.1 REC(×1.03 context)
L5 3.8 · L10 3.5 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.8 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Season10 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Situational splits
Over 5.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%3/9Low
Next matchup — @ DET
Sep 27, 2026
2ndof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
DET allows 5.0 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Adonai Mitchell has gone over 5.5 REC 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 30% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC of 32 teams (5.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 30%.
More Adonai Mitchell research
Adonai Mitchell — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mitchell Targets→
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Mitchell Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Mitchell Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
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NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.