New York Jets

Adonai Mitchell Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Adonai Mitchell has gone over 6.5 TGT in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 7.0 TGT · our line

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OutAdonai Mitchell isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mitchell was, specifically, Smith's most-targeted pass-catcher during Tuesday's practice, in which the Jets ran drills to simulate high-pressure situations such as third-and-long. Rosenblatt also notes that Mitchell and Smith connected frequently during 7-on-7 and 11-on-11 drills in May. New York acquired Mitchell via trade with the Colts last November, and across eight games with the team he secured 25 of 59 targets for 312 yards and two scores, including an 8-102-1 performance against the Falcons in Week 13. With the Jets' offense seemingly in position to take a step forward with Smith under center in 2026, Mitchell will have an opportunity to capitalize on a starting role alongside Garrett Wilson and rookie first-round pick Omar Cooper.

Verdict

vs 6.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 35% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line35argues against it

Consistency42neutral

Projection

8.2 TGT(×1.10 context)

L5 8.4 · L10 7.0 · med 6.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 5.2 · ceil 9.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 109 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Last 209 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Season9 games

44%over

4 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	9/9
	78%	7/9
	78%	7/9
6.5Current	44%	4/9
	33%	3/9
	33%	3/9
	11%	1/9

Last 9 games — TGT per game vs. line 6.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 6.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%4/8Low

With a teammate out

How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Geno Smith out-1.0 TGT when he sits

Without (3g)

6.3 TGT

33% over 6.5

With (6g)

7.3 TGT

50% over 6.5

Last matchup — vs NE

Dec 28, 2025

19thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 5.4 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 9 games, Adonai Mitchell has gone over 6.5 TGT 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 19th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.4 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.