Loading…
New York JetsAdonai Mitchell
#15 · WR · 6' 2" · 205 lb · 10 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 9 of these 10 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 48.0 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Adonai Mitchell's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Finger Not Specified
Mitchell was added to the injury report Thursday as a limited participant, and he again was limited at Friday's session while wearing a large wrap over his right hand, per Brian Costello of the New York Post. Mitchell isn't sure-handed even in the best of times, but he's been piling up targets and air yards anyway and now will get a favorable dome matchup with the Lions (if he's able to suit up). If Mitchell doesn't end up playing, the Jets may need a lot of snaps from a practice-squad veteran like Sterling Shepard or Tyler Johnson. Their WR depth wasn't great in the first place and already has been stretched thin with rookie Omar Cooper (ankle) on injured reserve for at least three more weeks.
Verdict
vs 43.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 5/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
49.2 REC YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 42.0 · L10 48.0 · med 42.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 21.6 · ceil 69.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Season10 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Situational splits
Over 43.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days44%4/9Low
Next matchup — @ DET
Sep 27, 2026
1stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
DET allows 72.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Adonai Mitchell has gone over 43.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 1st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (72.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 30.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 44.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
Caesars-108
-4.0% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-113
-5.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+1.4%
Our model puts the over at 51.2% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (44.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.