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Atlanta FalconsBijan Robinson
#7 · RB · 5' 11" · 215 lb · 18 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 16 of these 18 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 89.3 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBijan Robinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Considering the Falcons' air attack posed next to no threat to the Panthers defense while being helmed by Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, Robinson managed to put together a serviceable, albeit scoreless, day. The ultra-talented back didn't have a robust enough opportunity on the ground thanks to a game script that increasingly turned against the run, but Robinson's 4.5 yards per carry was more than respectable considering the circumstances. Either Michael Penix (knee) or Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) appear to have a chance to return for Thursday's Week 3 road matchup against the Packers, a development that would theoretically offer Robinson the opportunity to see some less crowded defensive fronts.
Verdict
vs 79.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)48neutral
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency16argues against it
Projection
90.5 RUSH YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 91.8 · L10 95.4 · med 84.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 55.6 · ceil 126.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 79.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 |
Situational splits
Over 79.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%9/17Medium
Next matchup — @ GB
Sep 25, 2026
26thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
GB allows 33.8 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bijan Robinson has gone over 79.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 26th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (33.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 45.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 78.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)+6.0%
Our model puts the over at 56.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (78.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.