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Denver BroncosBo Nix
#10 · QB · 6' 2" · 217 lb · 20 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 18 of these 20 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 231.4 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBo Nix isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Nix and the Broncos' offense started the game off in worrisome fashion, seemingly carrying over the malaise of their Week 1 Monday night loss to the Chiefs. Denver was still facing a 13-6 deficit heading into the fourth quarter, but Nix rallied the troops with a seven-yard touchdown pass to Nate Adkins and a key 17-yard strike to Evan Engram midway through the fourth quarter on what turned out to be the game-winning drive. The victory pulled the Broncos to 1-1 and gave Nix's early-season stats a serious boost heading into a Week 3 home showdown against the Rams next Sunday night.
Verdict
vs 227.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)48neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency51neutral
Projection
214.1 PASS YDS(×0.93 context)
L5 204.2 · L10 250.3 · med 283.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 169.0 · ceil 296.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 227.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 |
Situational splits
Over 227.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home73%8/11Low
Away22%2/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%10/19Medium
Next matchup — vs LAR
Sep 28, 2026
28thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
LAR allows 158.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bo Nix has gone over 227.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAR has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (158.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 68.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 221.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.5%
Best Over
Caesars-111
-5.9% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-112
-4.4% EV
Model vs market (over)-8.5%
Our model puts the over at 41.0% vs the market's no-vig 49.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (221.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.