Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucky Irving Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bucky Irving has gone over 13.5 FS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 13.8 FS · our line

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OutBucky Irving isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Irving won't require a ramp-up period to begin camp, per Bowles, which is highly encouraging after offseason shoulder surgery limited the 2024 fourth-round pick during spring activities. After injuries forced Irving to miss Weeks 5-12 last season and hampered him after his return, the third-year pro is now looking to reestablish himself as the clear top option in a Tampa Bay backfield that also includes Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker.

Verdict

vs 13.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 41% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it

Projection vs line41neutral

Consistency36argues against it

Projection

11.1 FS(×0.93 context)

L5 10.1 · L10 13.8 · med 14.2

Consistency

Variable

floor 8.3 · ceil 16.5

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Season10 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	70%	7/10
	60%	6/10
	60%	6/10
13.5Current	60%	6/10
	44%	4/9
	40%	4/10
	20%	2/10

Last 10 games — FS per game vs. line 13.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 13.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%4/6Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%5/9Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kenny Gainwell out-2.2 FS when he sits

Without (3g)

12.3 FS

33% over 13.5

With (7g)

14.5 FS

71% over 13.5

Last matchup — vs CAR

Jan 3, 2026

17thof 32 in FS allowed to running backs

CAR allows 10.7 FS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Bucky Irving has gone over 13.5 FS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 17th-most FS of 32 teams (10.7 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.