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Houston TexansC.J. Stroud
#7 · QB · 6' 3" · 218 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 228.3 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutC.J. Stroud isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
"There was a lot of progress that C.J. and the offense made last year," said Caley, who enters his second year as Houston's offensive coordinator. "We continued to get better from the start of the season to the end of the regular season and just continued to make progress from week to week. So we're going to continue to build on that. It's a new year. C.J. has done a great job out here. Looks good. Locked in." During the 2025 regular season, his third campaign with the Texans, Stroud -- who had his fifth-year contract option picked up in April -- threw for 3,041 yards with 19 TDs and eight picks in 14 games to go along with 48 carries for 209 yards and a rushing score. Looking ahead, he'll look to rebound from a forgettable four-interception outing in his team's divisional-round postseason exit last season, while working with a pass-catching corps that continues to feature WRs Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins, along with TE Dalton Schultz. The Texans also traded for RB David Montgomery this offseason and added TEs Foster Moreau and Marlin Klein with the goal of establishing a more effective ground game to help balance out the team's offense, per Nick Shook of NFL.com.
Verdict
vs 228.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency73supports it
Projection
225.3 PASS YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 212.4 · L10 234.8 · med 236.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 200.0 · ceil 252.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2015 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Season15 games
53%over
8 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 228.5Current | 53% | 8/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 |
Situational splits
Over 228.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%8/14Low
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
David Montgomery out+24.6 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (9g)
238.1 PASS YDS
56% over 228.5
With (6g)
213.5 PASS YDS
50% over 228.5
Last matchup — @ NE
Jan 18, 2026
28thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NE allows 188.3 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, C.J. Stroud has gone over 228.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (188.3 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 37.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.