Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud Completions

Stats updated: Jan 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

C.J. Stroud has gone over 21.5 CMP in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 20.5 CMP · our line

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OutC.J. Stroud isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

"There was a lot of progress that C.J. and the offense made last year," said Caley, who enters his second year as Houston's offensive coordinator. "We continued to get better from the start of the season to the end of the regular season and just continued to make progress from week to week. So we're going to continue to build on that. It's a new year. C.J. has done a great job out here. Looks good. Locked in." During the 2025 regular season, his third campaign with the Texans, Stroud -- who had his fifth-year contract option picked up in April -- threw for 3,041 yards with 19 TDs and eight picks in 14 games to go along with 48 carries for 209 yards and a rushing score. Looking ahead, he'll look to rebound from a forgettable four-interception outing in his team's divisional-round postseason exit last season, while working with a pass-catching corps that continues to feature WRs Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins, along with TE Dalton Schultz. The Texans also traded for RB David Montgomery this offseason and added TEs Foster Moreau and Marlin Klein with the goal of establishing a more effective ground game to help balance out the team's offense, per Nick Shook of NFL.com.

Verdict

vs 21.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral

Projection vs line45neutral

Consistency64supports it

Projection

19.9 CMP(×1.01 context)

L5 18.8 · L10 20.6 · med 21.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 15.8 · ceil 23.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2015 games

53%over

8 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%

Season15 games

53%over

8 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–75%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	73%	11/15
	67%	10/15
	60%	9/15
21.5Current	53%	8/15
	33%	5/15
	13%	2/15
	13%	2/15

Last 15 games — CMP per game vs. line 21.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 21.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%4/6Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%8/14Low

With a teammate out

How this CMP line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

David Montgomery out

Without (9g)

20.6 CMP

44% over 21.5

With (6g)

20.5 CMP

67% over 21.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Jan 18, 2026

21stof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

NE allows 19.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 22 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, C.J. Stroud has gone over 21.5 CMP 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 21st-most CMP of 32 teams (19.0 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 4.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.